The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a fresh warning to Nigeria, cautioning that despite notable progress in economic reforms, the country faces mounting risks from rising debt levels, overdependence on oil revenue, and persistent revenue leakages.
According to the IMF’s latest statement released during the 2025 World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings, Nigeria’s economic growth outlook has been upgraded to 3.9 percent, buoyed by improved oil production and investor confidence following the government’s exchange rate unification and subsidy removal policies.
However, the Fund emphasized that the recovery remains “fragile and uneven,” highlighting concerns about the country’s heavy reliance on oil, rising domestic borrowing, and weak non-oil revenue mobilization. The IMF warned that Nigeria’s budget deficit and debt-servicing obligations are expanding rapidly, posing risks to fiscal sustainability.
In a related report, the Fund flagged illicit financial flows as a major threat to Nigeria’s revenue base, noting that billions of dollars continue to leave the economy through informal and unmonitored channels.
The IMF advised the Nigerian government to intensify efforts toward economic diversification, tax reforms, and transparency in debt management, stressing that sustainable growth will depend on how well these reforms are implemented and maintained.
While acknowledging Nigeria’s reform progress, the IMF urged policymakers not to relax. “Now is the time to deepen structural reforms, strengthen revenue collection, and reduce vulnerability to oil shocks,” the Fund said.
With global oil prices fluctuating and domestic inflation still high, analysts say Nigeria’s ability to manage these warnings could determine the strength of its economic recovery in 2026.